Polaris Renewable Solutions Pvt. Ltd.
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Advisory

Reading a solar proposal like a CFO

IRR, payback, NPV and EBITDA impact, the five numbers that should decide an industrial solar investment, and the assumptions behind each.

Most solar proposals lead with the wrong number. A rupee-per-watt price or a headline capacity figure tells you almost nothing about whether the investment makes financial sense. A proposal built to survive a CFO's review leads with five numbers instead, and is explicit about the assumptions behind each one.

The five numbers

IRR, the annualised return the project generates, typically 18–28% for well-structured C&I solar depending on system size and tariff band.

Simple payback, how long before cumulative savings recover the investment; 3.5–7 years is the normal range for industrial systems.

NPV, the project's value in today's rupees once future cash flows are discounted; it should be positive from Year 1 in most C&I deployments.

Accelerated depreciation, under Indian income-tax provisions, up to 40% of the asset's value can be depreciated in Year 1, materially improving after-tax cash flow for enterprises with the profit to absorb it.

Electricity cost savings, the predictable line, typically around 80% below grid tariffs, sustained across the asset's full 25-year life.

The assumptions behind each

Every one of those five numbers is only as good as the generation estimate underneath it. Ask what degradation curve the model assumes, what tariff escalation it's pricing in, and, most importantly, how the generation figure was derived. A model built on a genuine load analysis and site-specific simulation, not a regional average, is the difference between a plant that tracks its estimate within a couple of percentage points and one that quietly underperforms for 25 years.

Red flags in a weak proposal

If a proposal doesn't show IRR and payback explicitly, that's a flag. If there's no depreciation schedule, that's a flag. And if there's no long-term O&M plan beyond commissioning, that's the biggest one, it's how solar assets end up orphaned, generating below their modelled output with nobody accountable for the gap.

What we build instead

Every Polaris proposal is an investment-grade financial model before it's anything else, IRR, payback, depreciation and cash flow, reviewed and signed off before design begins. The same model is what the operating team is held to for the full 25-year life of the asset.

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